The week ahead is filled with announcements from Asia to the Western Hemisphere. Monday ( all times EST) will be quiet until the evening hours when the RBA Meeting Minutes are released. All will be watching for clues on if the Mr. Stevens and company are set on another .25 point cut this year.
Tuesday morning will be active with Japan releasing its Industrial Production for March (00:30 EST consensus: 3.6%).
Europe – The UK has a big CPI number (4:30 EST consensus .5%) the BOE’s Carney was quoted as saying that he does not think the UK will leave the EU and that the cash rate is not likely to be cut if the economy slows significantly.
North America – Two main data points from the will be realased: US Building Permits for April (EST 8:30 consensus 4.3%, previous -7.7%) and Core CPI (EST 8:30 consensus .2%, previous .1%). FOMC Members: Lockhart ( Neutral and non-voting), Williams (neutral and non-voting), Kaplan ( TBD and non-voting) speak in the afternoon.
Asia – Japan will kick off the Asia trading day with its GDP (QoQ) (EST 19:50 consensus .1%) then RBNZ Gov. Wheeler Speaks at EST 20:00.
Wednesday is a big data day in Europe.
Europe – The UK will release Average Earnings Index + Bonus for March (EST 4:30 consensus 1.7%, previous 1.8%) and Claimant Count Change for April (EST 4:30 consensus 4.0k, previous 6.7k). The EU will be releasing its CPI for April (EST 5:00 consensus -0.2%, previous -0.2%).
North America – US Crude Oil Inventories will be released (EST 1030, previous -3.410M) but the big announcement will be the release of the Fed Meeting Minutes at EST 14:00. ForexDisco feels the Fed will be “dovish” but USD will remain strong in the long term because all of the other central banks will be more “dovish”.
Asia – Australia has a big number release at EST 2130 (estimated 12.5 K, previous 26.1 K) if this number is be then there is a good chance that AUDUSD will start to move higher assuming the Fed minutes are “dovish”.
The data releases on Thursday will be somewhat like.
Europe – UK retail sales for April will be released (EST 430 consensus .5%, previous -1.3%).
North America – the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for May (EST 830 consensus 3.5, previous -1.6) will be released with the Fed wanting a beat on the number so I can get closer to raising interest rates in the second half of the year. A miss will give support to the USD bear case.
Friday will be relatively quiet with the exception of two data points from Canada. Canadian core CPI for April (EST 830 consensus .1%, previous .7%) and core retail sales for March (EST 830 consensus -.5%, previous .2%).
This week will be telling for USD. A dovish Fed minutes will “put a wrench” into the USD bull argument. Furthermore, AUD could strengthen significantly if the employment change is lower the consensus and if the last number is updated to a lower number. We accept the same rhetoric out of Japan regarding its policy on weakening its currency but we think it likely to change after the G7 meetings in late.
|Monday, May 16, 2016|
|08:30||USD||NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)||6.50||9.56|
|16:00||USD||TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar)||36.5B||72.0B|
|19:00||USD||FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks|
|21:30||AUD||RBA Meeting Minutes|
|23:00||NZD||Inflation Expectations (QoQ)||1.6%|
|Tuesday, May 17, 2016|
|00:30||JPY||Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)||3.6%||3.6%|
|04:30||GBP||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.3%||0.4%|
|04:30||GBP||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.5%||0.5%|
|04:30||GBP||PPI Input (MoM) (Apr)||1.1%||2.0%|
|05:00||EUR||Trade Balance (Mar)||22.5B||19.0B|
|08:30||USD||Building Permits (Apr)||1.130M||1.086M|
|08:30||USD||Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)||4.3%||-7.7%|
|08:30||USD||Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)||2.1%||2.2%|
|08:30||USD||Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.1%|
|08:30||USD||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.3%||0.1%|
|08:30||USD||Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr)||2.9%||-8.8%|
|08:30||USD||Housing Starts (Apr)||1.125M||1.089M|
|08:30||CAD||Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar)||-0.8%||-3.3%|
|09:15||USD||Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)||0.3%||-0.6%|
|Tentative||NZD||GlobalDairyTrade Price Index||-1.4%|
|12:00||USD||FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks|
|12:00||USD||FOMC Member Williams Speaks|
|13:15||USD||FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks|
|16:35||USD||API Weekly Crude Oil Stock||3.450M|
|16:35||USD||API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock||1.460M|
|18:45||NZD||PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1)||0.3%||-1.2%|
|19:50||JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||0.2%||-1.1%|
|19:50||JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.1%||-0.3%|
|20:00||NZD||RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks|
|21:00||AUD||RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks|
|21:30||AUD||Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.5%|
|Wednesday, May 18, 2016|
|04:30||GBP||Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar)||1.7%||1.8%|
|04:30||GBP||Claimant Count Change (Apr)||4.0K||6.7K|
|04:30||GBP||Unemployment Rate (Mar)||5.1%||5.1%|
|05:00||EUR||Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.7%||0.8%|
|05:00||EUR||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||-0.2%||-0.2%|
|05:00||EUR||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||1.2%|
|08:30||CAD||Foreign Securities Purchases (Mar)||10.35B||15.94B|
|10:30||USD||Crude Oil Inventories||-3.410M|
|10:30||USD||Cushing Crude Oil Inventories||1.520M|
|14:00||USD||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|21:30||AUD||Employment Change (Apr)||12.5K||26.1K|
|21:30||AUD||Full Employment Change (Apr)||-8.8K|
|21:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate (Apr)||5.8%||5.7%|
|Thursday, May 19, 2016|
|04:30||GBP||Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)||1.9%||1.8%|
|04:30||GBP||Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)||0.5%||-1.6%|
|04:30||GBP||Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)||0.5%||-1.3%|
|04:30||GBP||Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)||2.5%||2.7%|
|07:30||EUR||ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting|
|08:30||USD||Initial Jobless Claims||276K||294K|
|08:30||USD||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)||3.5||-1.6|
|08:30||USD||Philly Fed Employment (May)||-18.5|
|08:30||CAD||Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar)||-0.5%||-2.2%|
|10:30||USD||FOMC Member Dudley Speaks|
|Friday, May 20, 2016|
|06:00||GBP||CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)||-13||-11|
|08:30||CAD||Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)||2.1%||2.1%|
|08:30||CAD||Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.7%|
|08:30||CAD||Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)||-0.5%||0.2%|
|08:30||CAD||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.3%||0.6%|
|08:30||CAD||Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)||-0.7%||0.4%|
|09:00||USD||FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks|
|10:00||USD||Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)||1.2%||5.1%|
|10:00||USD||Existing Home Sales (Apr)||5.40M||5.33M|
|13:05||USD||Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count||318|
|15:30||GBP||CFTC GBP speculative net positions||-34.9K|
|15:30||USD||CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions||292.0K|
|15:30||USD||CFTC Gold speculative net positions||264.9K|
|15:30||USD||CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions||19.7K|
|15:30||AUD||CFTC AUD speculative net positions||38.2K|
|15:30||JPY||CFTC JPY speculative net positions||59.0K|
|15:30||EUR||CFTC EUR speculative net positions||-21.9K|