Week Ahead: Announcements and Forecasts

Forex Weekly Announcements and Analysis
The week ahead for in the Forex Markets

The week ahead is filled with announcements from Asia to the Western Hemisphere.  Monday ( all times EST) will be quiet until the evening hours when the RBA Meeting Minutes are released.  All will be watching for clues on if the Mr. Stevens and company are set on another .25 point cut this year.

Tuesday morning will be active with Japan releasing its Industrial Production for March (00:30 EST consensus: 3.6%).

Europe – The UK has a big CPI number (4:30 EST consensus .5%) the BOE’s Carney was quoted as saying that he does not think the UK will leave the EU and that the cash rate is not likely to be cut if the economy slows significantly.

North America – Two main data points from the will be realased: US Building Permits for April (EST 8:30 consensus 4.3%, previous -7.7%) and Core CPI (EST 8:30 consensus .2%, previous .1%).  FOMC Members: Lockhart ( Neutral and non-voting), Williams (neutral and non-voting), Kaplan ( TBD and non-voting) speak in the afternoon.

Asia – Japan will kick off the Asia trading day with its GDP (QoQ) (EST 19:50 consensus .1%) then RBNZ Gov. Wheeler Speaks at EST 20:00.

Wednesday is a big data day in Europe.

Europe – The UK will release Average Earnings Index + Bonus for March (EST 4:30 consensus 1.7%, previous 1.8%) and Claimant Count Change for April (EST 4:30 consensus 4.0k, previous 6.7k).   The EU will be releasing its CPI for April (EST 5:00 consensus -0.2%, previous -0.2%).

North America – US Crude Oil Inventories will be released (EST 1030, previous -3.410M) but the big announcement will be the release of the Fed Meeting Minutes at EST 14:00.  ForexDisco feels the Fed will be “dovish” but USD will remain strong in the long term because all of the other central banks will be more “dovish”.

Asia – Australia has a big number release at EST 2130 (estimated 12.5 K, previous 26.1 K) if this number is be then there is a good chance that AUDUSD will start to move higher assuming the Fed minutes are “dovish”.

The data releases on Thursday will be somewhat like.

Europe – UK retail sales for April will be released (EST 430 consensus .5%, previous -1.3%).

North America – the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for May (EST 830 consensus 3.5, previous -1.6) will be released with the Fed wanting a beat on the number so I can get closer to raising interest rates in the second half of the year. A miss will give support to the USD bear case.

Friday will be relatively quiet with the exception of two data points from Canada. Canadian core CPI for April (EST 830 consensus .1%, previous .7%) and core retail sales for March (EST 830 consensus -.5%, previous .2%).

This week will be telling for USD. A dovish Fed minutes will “put a wrench” into the USD bull argument. Furthermore, AUD could strengthen significantly if the employment change is lower the consensus and if the last number is updated to a lower number.  We accept the same rhetoric out of Japan regarding its policy on weakening its currency but we think it likely to change after the G7 meetings in late.



Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, May 16, 2016
08:30   USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) 6.50 9.56
16:00   USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar) 36.5B 72.0B
19:00   USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
21:30   AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
23:00   NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 1.6%
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
00:30   JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 3.6% 3.6%
04:30   GBP CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% 0.4%
04:30   GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.5% 0.5%
04:30   GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Apr) 1.1% 2.0%
05:00   EUR Trade Balance (Mar) 22.5B 19.0B
08:30   USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.130M 1.086M
08:30   USD Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) 4.3% -7.7%
08:30   USD Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.1% 2.2%
08:30   USD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.1%
08:30   USD CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% 0.1%
08:30   USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr) 2.9% -8.8%
08:30   USD Housing Starts (Apr) 1.125M 1.089M
08:30   CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.8% -3.3%
09:15   USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% -0.6%
Tentative   NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -1.4%
12:00   USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
12:00   USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
13:15   USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
16:35   USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 3.450M
16:35   USD API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock 1.460M
18:45   NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3% -1.2%
19:50   JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.2% -1.1%
19:50   JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.1% -0.3%
20:00   NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
21:00   AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
21:30   AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.5%
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
04:30   GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) 1.7% 1.8%
04:30   GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) 4.0K 6.7K
04:30   GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.1% 5.1%
05:00   EUR Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.7% 0.8%
05:00   EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) -0.2% -0.2%
05:00   EUR CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.2%
08:30   CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Mar) 10.35B 15.94B
10:30   USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.410M
10:30   USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.520M
14:00   USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
21:30   AUD Employment Change (Apr) 12.5K 26.1K
21:30   AUD Full Employment Change (Apr) -8.8K
21:30   AUD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.8% 5.7%
Thursday, May 19, 2016
04:30   GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 1.9% 1.8%
04:30   GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% -1.6%
04:30   GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% -1.3%
04:30   GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 2.5% 2.7%
07:30   EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
08:30   USD Initial Jobless Claims 276K 294K
08:30   USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 3.5 -1.6
08:30   USD Philly Fed Employment (May) -18.5
08:30   CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.5% -2.2%
10:30   USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Friday, May 20, 2016
06:00   GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May) -13 -11
08:30   CAD Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.1% 2.1%
08:30   CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.7%
08:30   CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.5% 0.2%
08:30   CAD CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% 0.6%
08:30   CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.7% 0.4%
09:00   USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
10:00   USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) 1.2% 5.1%
10:00   USD Existing Home Sales (Apr) 5.40M 5.33M
13:05   USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 318
15:30   GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions -34.9K
15:30   USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 292.0K
15:30   USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 264.9K
15:30   USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 19.7K
15:30   AUD CFTC AUD speculative net positions 38.2K
15:30   JPY CFTC JPY speculative net positions 59.0K
15:30   EUR CFTC EUR speculative net positions -21.9K

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