USDJPY – Reasons to stay long

USDJPY weekly chart
USDJPY continues to grind higher towards the top of the HVA.

USDJPY has added to the nice gain experienced during the last two weeks.  It has moved back into the HVA ranging from 107.60 to 111.60.

Comments from Japanese leaders have shifted to signaling more stimulus is in the near future and it is likely to come after the G7 meetings.  They have also pushed the sales tax hike out another year to 2017.

The US beat estimates on CPI (m-o-m), Housing Starts and Industrial Production which emboldens the USDJPY bull case.  There are also FOMC members that claiming the a rate increase is possible at the next meeting.

USDJPY Announcements

Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, May 16, 2016
06:30   USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) -9.02 6.50 9.56
14:00   USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar) 78.1B 36.5B 72.6B
17:00   USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks  
22:30   JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
06:30   USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.116M 1.130M 1.077M
06:30   USD Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) 3.6% 4.3% -7.3%
06:30   USD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
06:30   USD Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%
06:30   USD CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
06:30   USD Housing Starts (Apr) 1.172M 1.127M 1.099M
06:30   USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr) 6.6% 2.9% -9.4%
07:15   USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) 0.7% 0.3% -0.9%
10:00   USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks  
10:00   USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks  
11:15   USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks  
14:35   USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock   -3.000M 3.450M
14:35   USD API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock   1.460M
17:50   JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.1% -0.3%
17:50   JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1)   0.2% -1.1%
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
08:30   USD Crude Oil Inventories   -3.167M -3.410M
08:30   USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories   1.520M
12:00   USD FOMC Meeting Minutes  

 

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY weekly chart
USDJPY continues to grind higher towards the top of the HVA.

USDJPY Investment Bank Forecasts

 

USDJPY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
CommerczBank    109.00    100.00    110.00    120.00    126.00
HSBC    115.00    115.00    115.00              –              –
NAB    115.00    115.00    117.00    118.00    120.00
ScotiaBank    112.00   115.00    118.00    120.00    120.00
BMOCM    108.00    110.00    111.00    116.00    117.00
Morgan Stanley    103.00    100.00      98.00    102.00    104.00
CitiBank – HK              –    114.00              –    108.00              –

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